The Incentive Perverts

At some point you’re going to have to deal with America. Since just past the middle of the 19th century, no country has so labored under the weight of other peoples’ lives. Truly, one must marvel at the burden American meddling compels it to bear. Perhaps the warfare and welfare of foreigners is a resource, which we greedily aggregate. While most of Earth’s occupants have to scrape by on only their own thin problems, we hoard the problems of everyone. Which leads back to the topic: whether you want it or not, we’re America and we’re here to help.

For those few not yet advised, the disencumbering of our exquisitely sensitive moral conscience doesn’t occur without certain mutual understandings. Primarily among these is the understanding that you will grant due consideration to American guidance in such matters as trade, finance, military facilities, human migration, and evolving leftist social fashion. That is to say, with a bit of awkward candor, you will become a vassal state. But it’s really up to you. We’d prefer to ask, but can be prodded to tell.

For most leaders that makes for an easy choice. Though for the more recalcitrant, the options can rapidly lead to autopsy producing events. And because this path has become so well littered with corpses, it is creating the perverse incentive for oppositional leaders to not walk down it, but rather to run.

One of America’s mutual understandings with prospective vassal states is that it will retain sole discretion over whose execution ends up on YouTube, and what irritants get reduced to rubble. Those who reject such sensual overtures face a poorly incentivized problem. If they don’t nuke-up, they will be helpless against a hostile superpower with a proven proclivity for regime change. If they nuke-up too slowly, regime change advances on America’s priority list. So the unintentional inducement is for a binary response that eschews moderation: submit or go break-neck for nukes.

NKorean defectors have stated this same calculus is now driving Pyongyang. To be a nukeless non-vassal is to live beneath the Carrier Strike Group of Damocles. If thumbing your nose at Washington earned nothing but a shrug, then nukes wouldn’t be an existential issue. That’s not to say they wouldn’t be enticing, but they wouldn’t be imperative. And if our military tactics of dissuasion had been utilized more economically, we could have held them out as viable nuclear deterrence.

But instead of we’ll crush you if you try to get them what we’ve said with our cruise missile profligacy is we’ll crush you if you don’t get them. And that changes the decision tree for everyone.

One of the less explored branches on this tree is the use of nukes in the battlefield. If our next Serbiairaqlibyasyria launched strategic nukes, they could be assured of complete retaliatory destruction. Though what if they destroyed an American invasion force with a tactical device? Would America use strategic assets to crystallize a country that used only defensive devices in its own area? I think the answer is probably but not certainly yes. Though that’s a question Kim is no doubt pondering as carriers convene off his coastline. I would imagine the entire flotilla could be scuttled with a blast or two, and then America would do what?

That ambiguity, to the extent it exists in the minds of North Korean generals, creates unpredictable decision creases that should make nuclear deterrence far more of a strategic priority than punitive strikes based on Ivanka’s bouts of foot stomping.

But, of course, that’s not the country we live in. Instead of being content with our own problems, we strut about the world stage trying on everyone else’s. That means foreign leaders have learned to nuke-up if they want to keep their issues in-house. Hey, we’ve got nukes, we should try that.

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11 thoughts on “The Incentive Perverts

  1. Pingback: The Incentive Perverts | Reaction Times

  2. “But instead of we’ll crush you if you try to get them what we’ve said with our cruise missile profligacy is we’ll crush you if you don’t get them. And that changes the decision tree for everyone.”

    Congratulations, you strung two sentences together which actually do follow one from another. I’m not being facetious, that’s not an easy task.

  3. That title says it all. Can’t really blame Iran for its commitment to “nuclear energy.”
    Libya is probably the best example. December 13, 2003 Saddam Hussein is extracted from a sewage pipe. December 19, 2003 Libya denounces its WMD program. The US restores diplomatic relations. Gaddafi confidently stashes billions in US banks.
    February 2011: tsk tsk–protestors are dealt with harshly.
    October 2011–Gaddafi bludgeoned and sodomized in the streets.

  4. ‘Carrier Strike Group of Damacles’ is a great one. It took me a long time, well into my late 20’s, before I was able to look at situations like this as a dispassionate observer, rather than an American partisan. I used to just assume that what we did was right or at least necessary for stability. That’s clearly not the case. We are the country most responsible for nuclear proliferation because our need to dominate the entire planet, to the detriment of our own citizens, makes NOT having nuclear weapons essentially a suicidal move to any country that doesn’t toe our line. This is not to say the Norks and their government aren’t a stain on humanity, it’s just to say it really isn’t our problem. But, every adversarial country that voluntarily gave up their weapons program have been toppled and their population killed, displaced, or impoverished. Iran appears the lone exception, so far at least.

    Should I also assume that once we topple Kim and bomb the country into rubble, we will also be compelled to import a few million Norks to go along with our Muslims we bring in from countries we’ve destroyed? After all, think of the pictures of the children we will see. They are sure to upset ivanka, and we all know where that leads…

  5. If Nork nukes our troops, we will quickly and decisively vaporize the eyeballs right out of their slanted sockets. The few who dare to whimper a protest will do so with knees knocking in their pee-soaked pants. It might even scare the Squealer of the House into funding our Wall. “Scared Straight”, as it were.

  6. Nuke up if you got em’. That’s the U.S. foreign policy results the past 50 years.

    As for aircraft carriers. They are huge, complicated, slow moving, and slow maneuvering obsolete pieces of expensive hardware. They are extremely fragile huge floating steel targets with a nuclear reactor in the basement and increasingly staffed by women and incompetent minorities. They are not the effective fighting force we had in WWII against a serious enemy. They are only good today for beating up on smaller countries that can’t or won’t fight back.

    But the minute someone unleashes a barrage of anti-ship missiles or even a few torpedoes at the things we are going to see just how limited they are in modern combat against even a moderately determined and armed enemy. I can’t imagine how a carrier battle group can do anything about a low-orbit kinetic energy warhead dropping into the middle of the flight deck, let alone 10 of them at once, either.

    The only reason we haven’t discovered this yet is because we haven’t fought a serious enemy since WWII. But if that changes, people are going to see the realities of what women in combat, lower enlistment standards, and obsolete 1940s battle technology can’t do.

    • Having been on submarines which multiple times penetrated carrier’s defensive ring of anti-submarine warfare ships/planes/helicopters and closed within “no chance of missing” torpedo range I assert that you are correct.

  7. Make no mistake. All Wars are Banker Wars. There are THREE MAJOR COUNTRIES without a Central Bank AKA Rothschild Counterfeiting Ring. Can you guess which THREE? Iran, Syria and North Korea. W. Shrub’s Axle of Ebil. See, there’s a reason, unspoken by the Lugenpresse and masked with fake “humanitarian” BS.
    Kim Pop Crazy has no choice. They plan to kill him. They need a War to explain the impending default on the unpayable debts and Economic Collapse that ALREADY HAPPENED. Yeah, it ALREADY HAPPENED. They papered it over with Moar Debt, but the Retail Apocalypse is in Full Swing. Major League Retailers have been bleeding Red for awhile. Wal-Mart is now a grocery store, cause no one has the “disposable income” to buy that cheap plastic Chinee Crapola.

  8. I think Kim Crazy was just taking a page from Daddy’s playbook, push the edge and get Merica to fund the next 8 or 10 years of easy livin. But he’s nuts, and now he believes all the things he’s been saying about hisself. Here’s the thing; nuclear proclivity is here to stay. It’s obviously not that difficult to achieve if those idiots did it. If NK and Iran develop deliverable nukes, it’s only a matter of time before one of them gets shoved up our butt. It would not matter if we all of a sudden started minding our own business. They need us as their demon and they’ll make sure we stay in that role. The solution unfortunately is to destroy one of them and it looks like it might be the little guy. Hopefully the sacrifice of several thousand of his human sandbags will intimidate the other aspiring nukers at least for a while. We’re going to do it eventually, might a well do it to them before they do it to us. My take anyway.

  9. Pingback: This Week In Reaction (2017/04/30) - Social Matter

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