I watched the vice-presidential debate last night in stages. First with both audio and visual inputs, then with sound muted, and then asleep. That was about a 12 minute process, and still more of a sacrifice than politics should require.
To be honest I hadn’t much previously scrutinized Hilly’s homunculus, and was surprised at my own reaction. I found Tim Kaine to be viscerally repulsive. In much the same way a man might feel while getting a prostate exam only to realize the doc has a hand on each shoulder. A dawning horror, to be sure.
I had expected him to impress as a Martin ‘O Malley or Lincoln Chaffee type. A stolid, emasculated contralto that gorges on every nugget of toe cheese when a black foot is put down before him. That last part is surely true enough, though otherwise he was hardly as anticipated. Instead America witnessed the emotional unbuckling of what appeared to be a tweaking tranny queen. Every exchange was marinated in contemporary effeminate aggression. Head bobs, finger wags, and oh no you di’nts. If he’s not actually gay, it’s a lifestyle that should be given serious consideration.
Then there were the bizarre facial expressions and tumblristic navel gazing. It’s uncertain whether his intent was to frighten or disgust viewers into compliance. Either way, I am certain his wife was even more ashen at the performance than when he masturbates on the coffee table in heels and a brassiere.
It’s interesting to contemplate the rationale behind his selection on the ticket. Of course all such decisions are premised strictly on identity optics. And since Clinton already brings a swarthy sapphic subtext, it would seem counterintuitive to balance the lesbian lead with a homo in the rear.
So presumably Buffalo Bill is there to corral skittish white voters who are increasingly concerned that the left isn’t joking about its stated racial intentions. Unfortunately, I doubt many had their reservations assuaged by Kaine’s ability to lick his own eyebrows.
And that’s too bad for the fight against climate change. Because 55 million whites eligible to vote did not do so in 2012. That represents an extraordinary pool waiting to be tapped. Any material animation of which would hugely impact the election. Both parties pay men sizeable salaries to comprehend this fact.
And the way republicans (including Trump) attempt to draw from this untapped electoral vein is by toadying for votes in black churches. This being a tactic I am certain has reaped dozens of votes in the past three election cycles. Though because they are eager slaves to their enemy’s frame, republicans do not overtly harvest their most fertile fields out of fear of raysis. You will note that Clinton is not similarly shackled.
But hypocrisy is almost tautology. Of course the victorious use tactics they want denied to their enemies. Only fools go looking for a fair fight. And just as obviously history’s losers will complain from the grave about those tools they were too craven to deploy. That’s the modern left and right. It’s Don’t you dare do the successful things we do talking down to Oh no, that’s not our values.
The Trump campaign has, somewhat, cast this agreement aside and attempted to draw from the prohibited white reservoir. This to choreographed howls of media anguish. It represents such an obvious route to victory that republican operatives have blanched at the notion he would even consider it. So much so that many of them have joined liberals in the now ritualized flogging of a certain past German chancellor. They fear citizens on the right may be losing their appetite for gentlemanly defeats. Though at least one analyst is saying the gambit is a flop.
Donald Trump’s strategy in this campaign has been fairly clear from the beginning: Drive up Republican support among white voters in order to compensate for the GOP’s shrinking share among the growing nonwhite portion of the electorate.
And Trump has succeeded in overperforming among a certain slice of white voters, those without a college degree. But overall, the strategy isn’t working. Trump has a smaller lead among white voters than Mitt Romney did in 2012, and Trump’s margin seems to be falling from where it was when the general election began.
Four years ago, Romney beat President Obama among white voters by 17 percentage points, according to pre-election polls. That was the largest winning margin among white voters for any losing presidential candidate since at least 1948. Of course, even if Trump did just as well as Romney did, it would help him less, given that the 2016 electorate will probably be more diverse that 2012’s. And to win — even if the electorate remained as white as it was four years ago — Trump would need a margin of 22 percentage points or more among white voters.
But Trump isn’t even doing as well as Romney. Trump is winning white voters by just 13 percentage points, according to an average of the last five live-interviewer national surveys. He doesn’t reach the magic 22 percentage point margin in a single one of these polls.
Welp, it’s back to the black churches I suppose. Or perhaps Trump could pursue the more conventional republican route by importing millions of Amerinds and fighting for 35% of their vote. You win these things on volume, you know.
Though readers can undoubtedly see the barrio-sized hole in the quoted author’s thesis. Romney lost to Obama by four points overall with a 17 percent margin in the white vote. I can assure you that losing control of their country’s destiny does not align with the constitutional values our founders intended for their posterity. Though more to the present point, if Trump is down four points with whites (who were 76% of the votes cast in 2012), and his position with “minorities” is equal to Romney, then he must be down three points from 2012 overall. Which would mean Clinton is ahead by seven points. But she’s not.
Some polls indicate a tie, with the realclear average showing Clinton ahead by under four. So how can Trump be outperforming Romney overall while underperforming him with mission critical whites? As I said, you win these things with volume.
If Trump moves a material number of that sedentary 55 million from the couch to the booth, he can dramatically increase his white performance while simultaneously winning a lower percentage of their vote. Ten percent of that pool entering the election would increase Trump votes by over a million, even while dropping from a 17 to 13 white margin overall.
So the only way to account for Trump outperforming Romney while underperforming with whites is either increased white participation or the black church boogie is finally working. Readers are free to speculate on which they find more likely.
But in the end, elections are always about logistics. It is moving meat to the polls. If your enemies can muster more raw tonnage, you will lose. Blacks voted against Reagan 9-1, as Hispanics did 2-1. He rose to become a cuckservative hero exclusively because of the demographics they are committed to ignoring.
But cuckservatives and neocons aren’t making decisions for the right anymore. And that fact more than anything else is what will send Tim Kaine screaming into the arms of his gimp suit.