I hope “Yes” wins. I hope it wins because policy decisions should be made closest to those who will suffer the results. Because states should come into alignment with their nations. Because sovereignty may foster sobriety. Because being responsible for their children’s future just may make people more responsible about their present. Because of the precedent it would establish. Because if the Scots can cast off distant indifferent rulers, why not others? And yes, I hope it wins simply because some of the foulest unincarcerated creatures on Earth are desperate that it lose.
Yet I think “No” wins. I think it wins because of natural human timidity. That behavioral governor that limits airflow to rash action. Crowd behavior differs dramatically from that of individuals. Most notably in the decrease of courage in solitude. If there were open voting tables in outdoor squares amongst boisterous cheerleading, I would predict an easy “Yes” victory. But in that lonely booth, the cold breath of doubt on the neck will dampen much enthusiasm. A great many will walk in perhaps even undecided as the curtain closes, and then…fear. What will independence mean to my livelihood? My savings? My retirement? My healthcare? My taxes? My ability to travel? My children’s education? Our national defense? I don’t know the answers. Ahh, to hell with this. No thanks.
And with that in mind, I’ll predict a vote less close than the polls imply: 55/45 no. And a good laugh will be had by all when Yes wins by 30 points.
So what do you say? Those who give a damn and have a guess are invited to indicate the status of both in the combox. Winners will receive a free lifetime subscription to this publication.