Trainspotting

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So what do you wankers think of this Scotland vote? What I hope and what I think will happen reside on divergent tracks.

I hope “Yes” wins. I hope it wins because policy decisions should be made closest to those who will suffer the results. Because states should come into alignment with their nations. Because sovereignty may foster sobriety. Because being responsible for their children’s future just may make people more responsible about their present. Because of the precedent it would establish. Because if the Scots can cast off distant indifferent rulers, why not others? And yes, I hope it wins simply because some of the foulest unincarcerated creatures on Earth are desperate that it lose.

Yet I think “No” wins. I think it wins because of natural human timidity. That behavioral governor that limits airflow to rash action. Crowd behavior differs dramatically from that of individuals. Most notably in the decrease of courage in solitude. If there were open voting tables in outdoor squares amongst boisterous cheerleading, I would predict an easy “Yes” victory. But in that lonely booth, the cold breath of doubt on the neck will dampen much enthusiasm. A great many will walk in perhaps even undecided as the curtain closes, and then…fear. What will independence mean to my livelihood? My savings? My retirement? My healthcare? My taxes? My ability to travel? My children’s education? Our national defense? I don’t know the answers. Ahh, to hell with this. No thanks.

And with that in mind, I’ll predict a vote less close than the polls imply: 55/45 no. And a good laugh will be had by all when Yes wins by 30 points.

So what do you say? Those who give a damn and have a guess are invited to indicate the status of both in the combox. Winners will receive a free lifetime subscription to this publication.

21 thoughts on “Trainspotting

  1. Like you, for about the same reasons you stated. And like you I am afraid the ‘No’ wins. No is the status quo safe no-change etc, you said it. ‘Yes’ would mean some rejuvenation, more heat, Evolution again perhaps.

    I was in Quebec during the 1994-1995 referendum. I remember the words of Jacque Parizeau after his short defeat: ‘We lost because of the ethnic votes and the Money mafia’. Of course he was sacked for saying that. How much of Scotland is in the same situation, I don’t know, but the resulting conclusion could well be the same. The Scots must feel alone right now, yeah, a bit scared, but perhaps they are stronger. So:
    Yes : 50.1%
    No : 49.9%
    Independent Scotland!

  2. Another generic benefit to secession is the multiplying difficulty of manipulating constituent parts, as opposed to a single whole. Imagine if all 50 states were independent. A significant number would likely have essentially ended immigration wholesale and secured their border. But they are powerless to do so under these “united” states.

    A union only requires bribing and/or extortion of one government. Controlling 50 states against the interests of their people would be an entirely different scale of task.

  3. The difference with the Quebec referendum though, is that the Scots let people as young as 16 to vote. And that could lift the ‘Yes’ an hair above the No.
    Regarding Quebec, It was so inappropriate to give the right of vote to all naturalized residents to decide a cultural as well as Historical issue that has its roots 200 years ago. Like if an North African freshly arrived, but nonetheless ‘Canadian’ had any stance on the issue beside money.
    Hamdulilllahhh !!!! Quebec still Canadian lalhlahlahlalh

  4. Over here via Irish Savant’s blog.

    I think the Yes vote is likely to win out as it looks like that’s what the system has facilitated by allowing a referendum to take place. Also top British traitors/ politicians crying crocodile tears over a possible yes vote.

    Max Musson over at Western Spring thinks it’s a trap to dismember states into smaller statelets in order for each to be more easily dominated by the [jew run] EU.

    I think Max’s view is likely correct.

  5. Having lived through two referenda on the issue of Quebec’s separation from Confederation, in 1980 and again in 1995, it turns out that the threat of succession is far more profitable than independence.

    Incrementally, over the years, the province of Quebec has won for itself de facto independence, with the added benefit that the rest of Canada indulges her budgetary fecklessness.

    I found it amusing the other day that Boy Cameron arrived breathlessly the other day pledging a better deal for Scotland including new powers of taxation.

    Scots, famously, are pecuniarily sensitive, they know where their haggis boiled.

    55/45 no.

  6. Your idealism is touching, calculus, but appreciate that revolutions are for the young.

    Quebec separatism is a dead letter now because the house and summer cottage have been paid for and the winters in Florida arranged, there’s no appetite for upsetting the poutine stand.

    You’ll recall that Mr. Duceppe destroyed the Bloc with one embrace of Pauline Marois?

    Scottish demographics being in no better shape than those of the descendents of the 10,000 and winters in Spain being just as frequent, I remain confident that Scots will see the wisdom in having their cake and eating it too.

    • It’s called protecting your behind.
      Say the Yes win and they supported the NO, they would be seen as foreign parasites AND traitors. That’s the only case that put them in trouble.
      So they instinctively support the YES. They’ll change their stance immediately after the referendum.

      that reminds me of a story about an American journalist visiting Germany in 1938. The American, tall, blue eyed, speaking perfect German, took a cab and ask the driver, who was jewish:
      “so….what do you think about Mr. Hitler’s policy?”
      The driver (probably sweating) “eh…..good…why?”

  7. To co-opt a question from our Secret Leaders: is Scottish independence good for the sexual degenerates, the rising tide of imported workers, the managerial elite, and the future of Morlock homogeneity? I don’t know the answer yet, but I figure I will after the votes are “counted.” I wouldn’t bet against the status quo, if only because the house always wins with the vig.

  8. This is not a prediction, but merely an above zero possibility in the event the exit poll holds. Despite this vote, deep fissures could open soon in the British union. On the remote chance that Cameron wasn’t lying through that yeast roll of a face, he has now committed to a significantScottish bribe. A bribe members of his own party have vowed to not pay.

    If it is paid, the English will quickly come to see themselves as even bigger saps than they already are. If it is not, the Scots will howl. And many will be ready to howl regardless. The “No” vote skewed heavily to the aged. They will now simply want to turn off the telly, go to bed, and count their pension pounds in the morning. The young in contrast will know that they have lost the only opportunity for independence in their lifetime. There will never be another chance outside revolution. And the passion for this romantic endeavor isn’t going to just vanish into a malt whisky.

    So there will be pissed-off Englishmen forced to subsidize pissed-off Scots. And, of course, into this roiling petri-dish the endless stream of Africans, Arabs, and Asians loudly demanding their own parasitically autonomous colonies. None of it is sustainable. Whether by scream or whisper, this will all end painfully.

    • Nigel Farange is gutting the Tory constituency on the issues of open borders and the continuing surrender of the sovereignty of the British Parliament to Brussels, so I’m not sure if regional income transfers are going to be high on the list. The United Kingdom wasn’t designed as a federal system as Canada, the United States and Australia were, the political stresses will come, tangentially over money, but more directly over the bargaining as the British muddle their way through to that end. With 9 out of 11 Scots willing to take a flyer on independence, more power will necessarily be given to the Scottish parliament, and if for Scotland why not for Wales and Northern Ireland?

      It’s an interesting contrast to the hothouse stresses in the United States, which is busy dismantling a robust federalism in favour of an unworkable rule from D.C.

  9. Pathetic. Nothing seems to be able to shake the status quo, in any European country.
    The Greeks starve and go in the streets by the millions for years, the government still resists.
    The Spanish at 25% unemployment demonstrate, the French in a complete disarray, the economy has totally stalled and push the far right party in the stratosphere, and now the Scotts too shy for a bit of change. Nothing.

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