I’m sure many of you have exhaled in relief upon learning that Stunning satellite images show summer ice cap is thicker and covers 1.7million square kilometers MORE than 2 years ago…despite Al Gore’s prediction it would be ICE-FREE by now.
The speech by former US Vice-President Al Gore was apocalyptic. ‘The North Polar ice cap is falling off a cliff,’ he said. ‘It could be completely gone in summer in as little as seven years. Seven years from now.’
Those comments came in 2007 as Mr Gore accepted the Nobel Peace Prize for his campaigning on climate change. But seven years after his warning, The Mail on Sunday can reveal that, far from vanishing, the Arctic ice cap has expanded for the second year in succession – with a surge, depending on how you measure it, of between 43 and 63 per cent since 2012.
To put it another way, an area the size of Alaska, America’s biggest state, was open water two years ago, but is again now covered by ice.
Judith Curry, professor of earth and atmospheric sciences at Georgia Institute of Technology in Atlanta, said last night: ‘The Arctic sea ice spiral of death seems to have reversed.’
Those who just a few years ago were warning of ice-free summers by 2014 included US Secretary of State John Kerry, who made the same bogus prediction in 2009, while Mr Gore has repeated it numerous times – notably in a speech to world leaders at the UN climate conference in Copenhagen in 2009, in an effort to persuade them to agree a new emissions treaty.
Professor Andrew Shepherd, of Leeds University, an expert in climate satellite monitoring, said yesterday: ‘It is clear from the measurements we have collected that the Arctic sea ice has experienced a significant recovery in thickness over the past year.
I recall when the Global Climate/Warming Change hysteria was in full crest. Weather supremacists strode the lecterns ascendant. Denial of heat became as taboo as denial of race…or even worse! The Earth was growing so molten so quickly that by next Wednesday one would be able to use Hillary’s desiccated womb as an open air microwave. It was all very much settled.
And of course the left’s hoi polloi plunged it down their gullets bones, gristle, and beak. Given some period with a pliant media these people could probably be manipulated into grease painting their faces to sing “I’m a little teapot” in robotic pantomime nude on a weekday sidewalk–while screaming at those who aren’t.
Though Al Gore had this played well. It required only some discreet model tweaking here and thermometer breakage there and the red hot world would be copacetic. Though ironically enough, the weather just wouldn’t cooperate. Cool summers, cold winters, and growing ice. Growing. Always growing. Always mocking. Its smirk no less searing for the frigidity.
No doubt I now grew very pale;—but I talked more fluently, and with a heightened voice. Yet the cold increased—and what could I do? It was a low, dull temperature—much as a winter bough enveloped in snow. I gasped for breath—and yet the media heard it not. I talked more quickly—more vehemently; but the ice steadily increased. I arose and argued about trifles, in a high key and with violent gesticulations; but the ice only grew. Why would these acolytes and minions not be gone? I paced the floor to and fro with heavy strides, as if excited to fury by the observations of the men—but the ice steadily increased. Oh God! what could I do? I foamed—I raved—I swore! I swung the chair upon which I had been sitting, and grated it upon the boards, but the ice arose over all the arctic and continually increased. It grew thicker—denser—whiter! And still the reporters chatted pleasantly, and smiled. Was it possible they saw not? Almighty God!—no, no! They saw!—they suspected!—they knew!—they were making a mockery of my horror!-this I thought, and this I think. But anything was better than this agony! Anything was more tolerable than this derision! I could bear those hypocritical smiles no longer! I felt that I must scream or die! and now—again!—hark! Colder! Slicker! Crunchier! Polar bears!
“Villains!” I shrieked, “dissemble no more! I admit the deed!—tear up my tome! here, here!—It is the freezing of this hideous Earth!”
You know, if Al and the kids were actually convinced of cataclysm, one would imagine news of cooler temperatures and growing ice–a pleasant failure of dire forecasts–would be greeted with a singular sentiment: relief. That it is not may lend some insight into otherwise veiled designs.
Yet the now almost comical failure to bring any predictive power to the debate must have surely sent advocates scurrying back into their own skins for some retro-fitted circumspection. At least that is what the model of human behavior might suggest. But it too would be wildly inaccurate. For science is hardly cowed by mere humiliation. Now is when faithful men in white coats stand to be counted. Now is when guns sound at the front. To reputational ruin or Ragnarok!
No more pause: Warming will be non-stop from now on
Enjoy the pause in global warming while it lasts, because it’s probably the last one we will get this century. Once temperatures start rising again, it looks like they will keep going up without a break for the rest of the century, unless we cut our greenhouse gas emissions.
The slowdown in global warming since 1997 seems to be driven by unusually powerful winds over the Pacific Ocean, which are burying heat in the water. But even if that happens again, or a volcanic eruption spews cooling particles into the air, we are unlikely to see a similar hiatus, according to two independent studies.
According to another recent study, the current hiatus may be our last for a while. Matthew England and his colleagues at the University of New South Wales in Sydney, Australia, tried to quantify the chance of another pause. “It’s looking to us that it’s probably going to be the last one that we’ll see in the foreseeable future,” says England.
Using 31 climate models, they showed that if emissions keep rising, the chance of a hiatus – a 10-year period with no significant warming – drops to virtually zero after 2030. The current hiatus will probably be followed by rapid warming as the heat trapped in the ocean escapes back into the atmosphere, so we are unlikely to get another decade of no warming before 2030. England believes it could be another century or more before the next hiatus.
But that could change if we slow greenhouse gas emissions now. If we can reach peak global emissions by 2040, the temperature rise will slow by the end of the century, and hiatus periods will become more likely.
Hiatuses can also be triggered by volcanic eruptions that spew particles into the air, reflecting sunlight away from Earth, as happened after the 1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption. But even if a volcano erupts it will make little difference. “After 2030, the rate of global warming is likely to be so fast that even large volcanic eruptions on the scale of Krakatoa are unlikely to drive a hiatus decade,” says team member Nicola Maher.
To the Chromosphere and beyond! So here’s my question: what did the models say about hiatuses in the late 90s? And if the answer is nothing, then what has improved of our climate understanding in the interim to now confidently dress them as natty scapegoats like little Lords Fauntleroy? What a darling hiatus this just happens to be. It’s from those Pacific winds, you know. They just started about 17 years ago and haven’t abated yet. What, you want climate models that take wind into account? Get real.
It may very well be that Warming Change is as both real and dire as claimed. Though the whole present firmament has tainted themselves with histrionics, false predictions, and calumny to skeptics. I’m of little inclination to hear the same bleats from the same mouths. Let them dissolve into less damaging pursuits and be succeeded by a more sober and judicious generation of climatologists who are emotionally capable of offering an honest accounting. If their models offer some predictive value, then informed citizens will be properly advised from there. Though by that time I’ll be dead–and not from a .7 temperature increase either.