That Filmy Monocle Again

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I saw where John Derbyshire offered some considered opinions on how the geography of America will shift over the next generation. As well as those areas he considers largely impervious to the elements. I’ll note his perspective and where it varies with my own.

Demography

We shall of course be much more multiracial in 20 years’ time, with a huge indio-mestizo component, more East and South Asians and Austronesians, and big localized populations of Africans. The old 90-10 white-black U.S.A. of the mid-20th century will be fondly remembered only by white octogenarians expiring in retirement homes where non-white orderlies pick their pockets.

The result need not be unstable. Multiracial nations can be stable: Brazil, Malaysia. Contrariwise, monoracial nations have endured bitter civil wars: Spain, China.

Racial disaggregation in housing and schooling will be further advanced along the fault lines: black, indio-mestizo, other. “Other” will be a loose alliance of East and South Asians, white Hispanics, and legacy whites. Similarity in group profiles in behavior, intelligence, and personality, together with the common imperative to avoid concentrations of blacks and indio-mestizos, will override group differences.

There will be more high-wealth enclaves, as rich Chinese and white Hispanics settle here in hundreds of thousands. This may lead to a rise in employment of domestic servants–Austronesians and mestizos, probably–or perhaps robotics will take up the slack.

There’s a more than slightly false equivalence in his multiracial comparison. His position could just as easily be realigned as: “Black children can become chess grand masters just as whites. Here are examples of both.” But that doesn’t offer the reader an accurate landscape. Monoracial nations indisputably enjoy less internal friction than mulkuls. It is fundamental to the two models’ difference. Monoracial nations are in natural states of relative comity which, in exceptional times, are riven by ideologies and civil war. Mulkuls are the opposite. They exist in natural states of inter-group conflict, which must be managed to maintain stability. Sometimes they are managed well, often enough they are not. Though the concepts of exception and rule occupy opposite poles in each case. Derbyshire is far well acquainted enough with statistics to know which model he would wager on for peace and stability.

I also think his racial contours of housing and schooling are not entirely accurate. His view is one that many race-aware conservatives see as likely only because they mistakenly believe all parties are playing the same game. Of course this is anything but correct. Yes, the Asians and “white hispanics” will not want their children in black schools. But unlike whites, they will have both the will and power to not settle for an imperfect compromise of “loose alliances.” I think they will do as sentient creatures inclined toward life always have: they will draw boundaries around their habitat and strictly enforce them. And the “civil rights” apparatus will say sweet fuck all about it. Expect lots of variants on Shomrim. That means Asians will cultivate asian only schools in asian only neighborhoods. So to with the mestizos, muslims, jews, indians, and africans to the extent each group feels segregation behooves them. And where they believe it does not, what remains of white schools and neighborhoods will be open to their whimsey. They will have safe harbors at their discretion. Obviously, we will not.

I do agree that walled enclaves are going to become very chichi. Especially outside what will increasingly become red zones within the coastal megalopolises. If you can discern a means to profit from what will become a continual retreat from public spaces into constricting bands of security and autonomy–let me know.

Ideology

The state ideology–“political correctness,” “the Narrative”–seems to me quite robust. I don’t expect it to change over the next 20 years.

The Harvard Crimson has surveyed this year’s graduating class. Fifty-nine percent declares itself “liberal or very liberal.” Only 14 percent say they are “conservative or very conservative.” These are the people who will be running the USA 20 years from now.

The Narrative on race–i.e. that all observed race differences in behavior, intelligence, and personality are 100 percent social in cause–should hold firm. The comforts, satisfactions, and rewards of adhering to the Narrative will keep the media and educational elites loyal, and most people will follow their lead.

I think this is half true. Liberalism will remain ascendant–though only until it has accomplished its intended purpose. Liberalism has metastasized into simply tribal warfare in a ghillie suit. It exists as a means to defeat enemies, not as a principled ideology which those antagonists intend to adopt for their own use after hostilities have concluded. I don’t see that even those on the political fringe like Derbyshire perceive this dynamic. If victory becomes assured, liberalism (as a stated principle) will be sloughed off like a snake’s skin. It is decidedly not on the right side of history. Though of course current appearances must be maintained for the traitors, dupes, and venal corporate-politicos.

Dissent

I expect some measured tightening of the controls on dissent, for two reasons.

First, continuing failure of rectification programs will cause increases in cynicism around the margins.

This should be easy to police. Head Start has been failing for 50 years, but the elites still believe in it; and to the degree ordinary citizens know about it, they follow the elites.

Some extra policing will be necessary, though, to keep cynicism in check. Comment threads at major news sites will have disappeared. Public shaming will be more frequent. Psychiatry will have declared racism a mental disorder.

Second, the human sciences will deliver results discomfiting to the Narrative. This is bound to happen as geneticists, neuroscientists, and social psychologists probe deeper into human nature.

History tells us, however, that ideology, which rests on the emotions, is far more potent than science, which rests on the intellect.

There will in any case be less intellect around 20 years from now, as dysgenic trends push the bell curve leftwards and smart machines relieve us of the low-level intellectual labors that keep us alert.

So, again, not too hard for the authorities to control.

Agreed with all other than the “measured” aspect of tightening. I can not see why the tightening of controls will be measured in any sense. The Internet will be vastly more policed, with right-wing malcontents being routinely “outed” to career ruination until the remainder of the herd learns to keep its “moooing” quiet. And mere penury is probably optimistic. Holder continues to pace his boss in an admirable frenzy of erecting punji spikes around the country’s founding stock. Barring the dramatic, we will live to enjoy protections from online “hate speech” and criminal prosecution of the domestic terrorists engaged in the practice.

Technology

Social change will continue to be driven by technological advances. Smarter machines will wipe out ever more low-level jobs, swelling the numbers of “useless mouths,” disproportionately among low-IQ races (blacks, indio-mestizos).

The fact that the population is getting dumber as the machines get smarter will be an accelerant.

Self-driving vehicles will be revolutionary. Cabbies, truckers, bus drivers, and traffic cops will be nearly extinct by 2034. Much lower accident rates will bring dwindling demand for auto body repairmen, insurance adjusters, tow truck drivers, and EMS staff.

With ever fewer jobs for the left side of the bell curve, a universal dole–a federally-guaranteed minimum income–will be in force.

Augmenting the pacifying effect of the dole will be increased surveillance of underclass districts, perhaps employing drones; so crime may actually decrease, leading to a reduction in non-black fear of blacks.

This could push back against racial disaggregation but probably not by much. Non-blacks still won’t want their kids in schools with too many blacks and indio-mestizos.

Where did Derbyshire ever come upon the reputation for pessimism? What a starry-eyed optimist. Though I do think his assessment is very accurate regarding the proliferation of mouths. Many will likely be incapable or disinclined toward productive labor, though this will not impact the state’s determination to see them well fed, housed, and entertained. The welfare raft is going to grow very large. And all of those whites who made their Faustian bargain with democrats for entitlements in their dotage will watch in horror as the new majorities shift funding priorities from old to young. From whom to who.

Derbyshire also believes that the mollifying welfare carrots will be supplemented by more draconian enforcement sticks. That would certainly make our Mad Max world slightly less mad, though again who will wield political power to initiate such programs? Would Obama and Holder II be the architects of ghetto pacification zones? I won’t bother answering that. And so presumably Derbyshire envisions political levers being wielded by other hands. Whose I do not know.

Politics

With that tightening of the controls on dissent, the national politics of 2034 will have even less content than today’s.

Which is to say, practically none at all in regard to race. The US ruling classes today already have no differences among themselves on race issues. All cleave to the Narrative. All consider dissent on race topics to be “hateful.”

To the degree that party politics is of any importance, we shall be in a period of Democratic Supremacy. The Republican Party will either have contracted to its conservative (that is white, Christian, Southern) core and be nationally irrelevant, like 18th-century British Tories, or it will continue to offer the Narrative fronted by different personalities, as at present.

Probably the universal dole will be the last major domestic political issue. Even that will not be strongly contested; the need is too obvious.

Does Derbyshire actually believe this statement: “The US ruling classes today already have no differences among themselves on race issues?” Of course they have differences among themselves on race issues. What they don’t have a difference on is that whites must be dispossessed and disemboweled. After that, they agree on nothing. Derbyshire is mistaking priorities for principles.

Nature

Either warming or cooling could cause food crises in nations on the Malthusian edge in Africa, West Asia, and Central America, leading to Camp of the Saints-style mass migrations. With cheap modern navigation aids, this could include transatlantic flows. The United States has already received boat people from Africa.

I consider this a low probability, high impact event. As with the French in Jean Raspail’s novel, the Narrative will have been so thoroughly internalized as to make resistance impossible.

Again Derbyshire must sing himself to sleep with Bobby McFerrin every night. The leading elements of the Camp are already upon us. And it is no more a “low probability event” than Steve Sailer penning 47 columns in the next three days. What does anyone imagine Africa’s native unaided population carrying capacity is relative to present numbers? Or relative to double those numbers in 30 years? They will not and can not feed themselves…and eventually neither will anyone else. And when that day arrives they will break on our shores by the centimillions.

I wonder if the Spanish government will be issuing handgun bullets by that time?

14 thoughts on “That Filmy Monocle Again

    • Hey, I like the guy and think he’s humble and good-humored. Most importantly, he doesn’t disavow his more “pro-Western” audience. But let’s not pretend there’s no chink in his armor just because he trolls the permanently-disadvantaged demographics. He’s got his rayciss bona fides, yes, and a handy stock of fortune cookies to boot, but that doesn’t mean I can’t dismiss his sloped perspective on matters of futuristic racial predictions at a glance. After the cancer metastisizes, his legacy has no skin in the game. Will he wear the chinos in that household from beyond the grave? Sorry Charlie, I don’t think so.

  1. You’re possibly the worst writer I’ve come across. So verbose. What the fucvk is your point cunt? Just spit it the fuck out and lets get on with fucking life.

  2. “Either warming or cooling could cause food crises in nations on the Malthusian edge in Africa, West Asia, and Central America, …”

    What planet does Derb live on? Does he think these populations are actually growing all their own food?

    • I think what we have created in Africa–are creating this moment there–is going to represent perhaps the greatest global catastrophe by sheer numbers in history. A massive birth control program is the only conceivable means I see to manage the issue in a way that will preserve the globalists’ sense of exquisite self virtue.

      • You are correct. The Irish journalist Kevin Myers pointed this out in a series of articles in the Irish Independent newspaper eight years ago. These articles are worth reading. The Independent has scrubbed them from its site, but you can read them here:

        Africa is giving nothing to anyone – apart from AIDS.

        Thursday July 10 2008

        No. It will not do. Even as we see African states refusing to take action to restore something resembling civilisation in Zimbabwe, the begging bowl for Ethiopia is being passed around to us, yet again. It is nearly 25 years since Ethiopia’s (and Bob Geldof’s) famous Feed The World campaign, and in that time Ethiopia’s population has grown from 33.5 million to 78 million today.

        Writing what I should have written so many years ago.

        I am not innocent in all this. The people of Ireland remained in ignorance of the reality of Africa because of cowardly journalists like me. When I went to Ethiopia just over 20 years ago, I saw many things I never reported …

        Thus we are heading towards a demographic holocaust, with a potential premature loss of life far exceeding that of all the wars of the 20th Century. This terrible truth cannot be ignored.

        The free food donated to Africa is all that is keeping it alive. It has destroyed whatever rudimentary agriculture existed there; how can local farmers compete with free food? Thus, when the charity dries up, as it must, Africans will die in their hundreds of millions. Unfortunately, the one thing Africa doesn’t lack is guns and an apparently unlimited supply of ammunition (much of it bought with money raised by Bob Geldof and his Band Aid / Live Aid charities, but that’s another story). So, before they die of starvation, Africans will eat everything that lives there. All the wildlife – kiss it goodbye. Then, one another.

        Probably the most useful thing that we could do for Africa at this stage is to set up a massive project to store frozen eggs and sperm from the wildlife, so that Africa can be repopulated from zoo specimens after the dust settles. Just, for heaven’s sake, not the bipedal ones.

      • By the way, birth control is a non-starter in Africa. Africans won’t stand for it. AIDS is a huge disappointment – doesn’t live up to the hype at all. No, it will be starvation. Not a thing anyone can do to prevent it. Malthus will be vindicated after all.

  3. Of course liberalism is just a means to an end, to be discarded when no longer useful. Virtually all non-white “liberals” are openly pursuing their own racial interests. It’s liberalism when they do it, race hate when we try it. The proper role of whites in the liberal state is, basically, to bend over while every non-white race hustler lines up to screw them.

    As regards the Saints scenario, I think the time may come when the ruling elite decide they have the optimum number of non-whites in the population, and when that day comes, Africa and the rest of the Third World will be left to to their Malthusian fate, and not one person more will be allowed to escape from there. At what stage that will happen is the question.

    • Rob I like to periodically temper my sunny desolation with the same idea: that even the foulest traitor surely, surely must want to preserve some miniscule slice of this planet for his own grandchildren to live in peace.

  4. Analog, I read Theroux’s Last Train to Zona Verde. He is a liberal. He mouths every requisite platitude. And still the horrors of West Africa crushed him.

    I sometimes think Europeans, particularly Scandinavians, are like friendly flightless birds evolved from an environment bereft of predators. They simply can not fathom what it is they are importing into their midst. They have no frame of reference.

    I hate knowing how they will come to learn.

  5. As much as I like Derb, I think he falls into the trap that claims most prognosticators; he takes current trends (anti-racism, globalism) and extrapolates linearly into the future. I am not so sure. There are many probable events that will completely smash the trends Derb sees continuing into perpetuity.
    1) The end of cheap energy. The price of oil has quadrupled over the past decade. This has profound implications regarding global trade, travel and agricultural efficiency.
    2) The end of the Pax Americana. Much of globalization is built on the assumption that the US will guarantee security for the free flow of goods, capital and people across borders. Without US hegemony, large regional wars and a breakdown of the global supply chain become likely.
    3) An economic crisis/hyperinflation in the western welfare states. This is a no-brainer. With the loss of American hegemony comes the ends of the dollar’s reserve status. Printing money will again have consequences. How will a bankrupt state support all the millions of new useless mouths in the style which they have come to expect?

    These are fascinating questions to explore. Derb seems to lack imagination, or suffer from the illusion that the present is permanent.

  6. “If you can discern a means to profit from what will become a continual retreat from public spaces into constricting bands of security and autonomy–let me know.”

    The future is in building and selling “panic rooms”.

    I even have a corporate slogan…

    If you can’t go to the gated community then bring the gated community to you.

    • Of course owning a panic room if one is White would result in one’s immediate and vociferous decrial as a racist.

      It would be necessary to employ a white lie (heh) and say that the room was installed by the previous owner, a black disabled teenage lesbian atheist single mother, in order to protect herself from the depredations and perversions of feral gangs of White home invaders.

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