Before continuing, I’d encourage any lingering readers to note the long historical price pattern of market mania in the examples above. And further to digest the fact that extreme market volatility is a function of human group psychology and not prosaic P&L considerations. And because these psychological patterns repeat throughout time and place, it is is incumbent on us to recognize where we reside in the crest of the wave.
This thought occurred recently in reading several expressions of potentially mortal hope littered about in online comments I have been futilely attempting to avoid. Sentiments paraphrased as…
* This cultural lunacy can’t last forever
* The Left is now just flailing about
* The pendulum has swung too far, it has to turn
All true enough, but none relevant. The question is not whether The Regime will expire–it will–but what is to remain of our civilization when it finally does. For us to predecease it will bring little mirth at its eventual dissolution.
In recent correspondence I expressed the belief that the odds are material that the US, and its Anglo remora, are entering a period of cultural frenzy. From a social perspective, “racism” is already a greater ostracizing agent than practically every actual crime. Raysis is the apogee of glittery-eyed zealotry. It is our modern societal cornerstone–somehow both novel and foundational. To clergy, it is the most malign affront to God’s grace–left strangely unmentioned by his own son. It is our totem. Our golden calf. And we are sanctified only through our Daily Reprehensions.
Denunciations of raysis have become so extreme that the language has been exhausted of terms to express the obloquy. But words won’t have long to await comparable actions. And if racism is the greatest evil in the world, then what should happen to racists? There’s a very unpleasant answer to that.
Though before reaching that disciplinary response, there is a well-trod path of hysteria to traverse. It reminds me of market psychology in every way. A long, flat period of nearly horizontal foundation laying. Followed by the beginning of an angled growth phase. This is where the battle is fought, where resistance is greatest, and skeptics are most outspoken against continued upward movement. Though once public dissidents (market “shorts”) have been destroyed, friction abates and price movement is determined only by the unanimous “longs” rushing in out of fear or greed to join the mania. At this point, the chart pivots to vertical: there are no sellers of The Regime, only buyers. And along this manic terminal trajectory is where the previously inconceivable is conceived.
To continue the market metaphor with the NASDAQ graphic above, I suspect the Left, taken holistically as simply a Western disembowelment project, is around Mid-1999 at 2,500. To traditionalists, the state of affairs already seems egregious given the doubling of the Left’s now cultural hegemony from just a few years prior. But millions of souls have suffered history’s greatest lament: failing to understand that it can get much worse.
An old value investing axiom holds that one shouldn’t go long the market until there is blood in the streets. I had hoped the indications wouldn’t be so literal.